Over 14,000 UK arable farmers will be using less inputs in response to the ongoing uncertainty over input prices
Since January 2022, inflation in agriculture has been rapidly increasing. This, along with the reduction of subsidy, has resulted in farmers feeling the squeeze. The topic has received huge media coverage but how are farmers planning to respond?
The National Farm Research Unit (NFRU) surveyed farmers across the UK to ask them ‘how have your planting plans for the 2023 season been affected by input prices?’ The results were weighted up using the National Farm Research Unit’s Farm Structures Model to represent the total farming population across the UK.
The poll highlighted that over 14,000 arable farmers will be cutting back on inputs such as fertilisers and fuel. While nearly 7,000 UK arable farmers just don’t know how their recent planting plans will be impacted by the change in input prices. However, 28,000 farmers said their current planting plans will not change because of input price increases. This may put more pressure on receiving a higher than ‘normal’ price for their produce into 2023.
Cattle Price News
Finished Cattle Prices since 2018 vs Inflation
Figure 1
Vast areas of the UK received extremely limited rainfall this summer leading to reduced grass growth and many farmers beginning to feed winter stocks and rations early. However, the recent rain showers coupled with generally mild to warm temperatures have seen a resurgence in grass growth, much to the delight of many beef farmers. Like everything, producing beef, is not exempt from input price increases and the idea of feeding this early into the season is and was a scary one for farmers looking to keep input costs under control whist having uncertainty on beef values into the future.
Figure 2
Average cattle prices, according to figures sourced from DEFRA, through gov.uk1, look like they are increasing at a relatively steady rate, year on year. This must come as a relief for farmers after the uncertainty of 2019 and the early part of 2020. 2021 was a period of sustained growth in price, over and above the rate of inflation (RPI: 4.1% average 2021)2, however, due to current inflationary spike we have seen in recent months, largely driven by energy and fuel prices, beef price increases now fall roughly in line again.
With average prices still rising (approx. 10.5% increase against 2021 in May), it will be interesting to see where they go for the rest of 2022. Given the stark economic outlook at present, will prices begin to fall, given the potential for reduced demand as a result of the current cost-of-living crisis? Or will we see the price of beef edge ever closer to the much-touted 300p/kg figure, driven there by increased costs?
References
(1)Assets.publishing.service.gov.uk. 2022. GB MONTHLY COMMODITY PRICES: LIVESTOCK. [online] Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1084735/commodityprices-gbfinishedlivestockmth-23jun22ii.ods; [Accessed 8 July 2022].
(2)Ons.gov.uk. 2022. RPI All Items: Percentage change over 12 months: Jan 1987=100 - Office for National Statistics. [online] Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/czbh/mm23 [Accessed 8 July 2022].
Give it some welly!
The National Farm Research Unit (NFRU) completed a recent light-hearted poll with 1,883 farmers across the UK and The Republic of Ireland (ROI) asking the critical question that we all wonder about… “What brands of wellington boots do farmers wear?”.
When modelled to reflect the total farming population across the UK and ROI, it suggests that nearly 99,000 farmers (44% of farmers), wear Dunlop Wellies. That’s a whole lot of welly!!!
The equivalent of 42,794 farmers didn't know what brand of welly they wear
The closest competitors were Bekina, Le Chameau and Nora - a smaller number of farmers wearing each brand, but nevertheless all over 8,000 farmers each.
When looking specifically at arable farmers in Great Britain (GB), Dunlops huge market lead drops. Whilst they are still the most common brand at 11,777 pairs being worn, Le Chameau has 5,378 farmers who are opting to spend that bit extra on their welly brand. The most interesting finding is perhaps that 14,999 GB arable farmers said they don’t wear wellies at all on farm - possibly something to do with the lack of animal manure?
Le Chameau the premium brand of choice amongst arable farmers with over 5,300 farmers owning a pair
The equivalent of 7,882 arable farmers didn't know what brand of welly they wear
In the GB dairy world, Dunlop still lead the way with 40% (3,093) of dairy farmers putting on a pair of their wellies each morning. Le Chameau drop down the rankings with dairy farmers and instead Nora (1,109) followed by Bekina (797), take the second and third ranking.
Finally, when looked at by farm size rather than enterprise type in GB, 29% of under 200ha farms wear Dunlops compared with 24% of over 200ha farms. Le Chameau has a larger following in the over 200ha category with 13% of farmers wearing them compared to 5% of under 200ha Farms.
We hope that Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington, would be proud to know so many hard working farmers are still ploughing on in their wellies in 2022 in the footwear he popularised in the 19th century. Whether you are a Dunlop user or a Le Chameau cruiser they are all doing the job they were made for…keeping the muck on the outside.
Meet the Team
My name is Debs, and I am a Project Manager. I have worked for the NFRU for 5 years.
In my spare time I am a hobby shepherd. My partner is a self-employed shepherd and looks after 1200 commercial ewes. He is also a self-confessed sheep addict - five years ago, we had 12 ewes and a tup and now we somehow seem to have 95 commercial ewes. Every time he purchased more ewes I would moan … his answer was ‘have your own flock!’
I did some research, and after visiting several different flocks, decided to choose Greyface Dartmoor sheep for no other reason than they were nice to look at.
Living in Suffolk means Greyfaces are very few and far between, so several road trips later I had a bunch of ewe lambs. Greyfaces are slow growing, and we were recommended not to put them in lamb until they were shearlings. I do not have that much patience, so a road trip to Wales later I had 3 beautiful aged ewes, who were all put in lamb to a tup of my choice before they made the journey. As February 2021 came, I spent countless nights watching and lots of false alarms. Eventually, after being rather sleep deprived and very nervous, I was able to welcome my first set of twins, one of each! The other two ewes soon followed with a single each, three tups and a ewe. My partner delivered a tup and face-timed me to say “this one is a real cracker”.
They were pampered in a large stable until the weather improved and then were let out. The three boys grew well, but the ewe lamb was always behind and was never as strong. We lost her after a couple of months, which was heart-breaking, but I was always told where you have livestock you can have deadstock. Greyfaces are a rare breed, and the society are very strict about standards. All tup lambs have to be inspected before registration, so we took Cracker, the name stuck, and the two others on a very long trip to Lincolnshire to be inspected. As we arrived, I was told ‘not to expect too much’ as the inspectors had looked at twenty the weekend before and one had passed, and it was my first crop of lambs. I think they were trying to make sure I would not be too disappointed. The first two lambs were quickly dismissed, as we expected. Both inspectors were going over Cracker very thoroughly, they loved him! He passed! I was so very proud when that metal tag went in his ear, and I think I smiled all the way home. While we were there, they told me that he was a really nice tup lamb and I should consider showing him, we have never shown a sheep before so lots of advice was taken.
February 2022 and the county show schedules were available, I went for it. I entered Cracker and a very nice ewe lamb into our local county show - The Suffolk Show. We also entered them for The Norfolk Show.
We took them to a couple of smaller shows to prepare, and just as well we did! Cracker was a total pain. Despite hours and hours of halter training … he refused to stand. At the point of the judge putting her hand under him to feel his equipment, he launched himself upwards…
Needless to say, he wasn’t placed! The next show he was much better behaved and was placed 5th.
At the end of May, off we went to the Suffolk show ground. On the way I said to my partner how amazing it would be if one of them were placed top six but expected nothing as we are complete novices. They settled well in the pens and the next morning were primped. Cracker was first in the ring, in the long wool shearling tup category as breed specific classes for them are very few and far between. I thought he looked awesome even though it was a very big category. He was pulled into the final six and as you can imagine I was delighted! The judge kept going back to him which worried me, but I was happy for a top 6 finish. At the point when the steward handed him the rosettes, I was a nervous wreck. The judge walked straight over to Cracker and put the red rosette on his back and shook my partner’s hand. People were hugging me and shaking my hand, I cried. There was no feeling like winning a class at my local county show with a home bred tup.
He stayed in the ring for the tup championship and was placed reserve. The judge explained that the aged ram, a Lincoln long wool, only beat him because he was more mature and filled the eye better. Martha my ewe lamb was placed second in her class. Her size let her down, but she was a late lamb, so happy with the result as the day kept getting better. The judge asked for Cracker and Martha to be taken into the pairs class where they came second. Cracker was then judged on his own and awarded ‘best long wool rare breed in show’. As to be expected, I spent the next couple of hours in the stockman’s tent celebrating.
We had a brilliant two days, I don’t think I stopped smiling.
We followed this day up with a trip to Norfolk. It was a massive class, Cracker was placed 4th. Several people asked if I was disappointed after his success at the Suffolk, but no, not one bit, I honestly never went into this expecting to win. I wanted to show him off and have some fun and maybe educate people a little about the breed. I know now that showing sheep is a lot harder than I realised, but I am so glad I did it and have met some amazing people, learnt so much and loved it!
Next step in my sheepy journey comes in September when Cracker goes out with the ewes. I am really excited to see what they can produce between them.
I am already looking forward to next season's shows… watch this space!
Our Support for Farmers
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